I have spent the better part of two decades attending UN climate summits, moderating panels on sustainable mobility, and begging the developing world to look past the upfront costs of battery technology. I have handed out cloth tote bags in Kyoto and lectured finance ministers in Paris. None of it worked. The internal combustion engine remained stubbornly, frustratingly king. It is therefore with a profound sense of humility that I must concede my entire profession was wrong about how to achieve the green transition. We didn’t need carbon credits or multilateral treaties. We just needed Donald Trump to start a massive war in Iran.
The results speak for themselves. Across Pakistan, commuters are suddenly abandoning gasoline-powered motorcycles in droves, lining up around the block to purchase electric bikes. For years, environmentalists wrung our hands over how to disincentivize fossil fuel use in emerging markets without seeming imperialist. President Trump bypassed the moralizing entirely by simply destabilizing a major oil-producing region, sending global gas prices into the stratosphere, and making it financially ruinous for the average working-class person to fill a tank. It is a masterclass in market dynamics.
During a recent off-the-record dinner with a senior Pentagon strategist in Davos, I finally understood the brilliance of the maneuver. We were discussing the stubbornness of scope-three emissions over a plate of ethically sourced sea bass, when he pointed out that destroying petroleum infrastructure achieves what a carbon tax never could: absolute compliance. When gasoline becomes a luxury commodity hoarded by the ultra-wealthy, the masses have no choice but to embrace the electric thrill of a battery-powered two-wheeler.
The data coming out of South Asia is nothing short of miraculous. One prominent electric vehicle executive in Lahore recently told reporters that the geopolitical crisis has made Trump the "salesman of the year" for the battery-powered bike industry. To see a Republican commander-in-chief recognized as a champion of global sustainability is a paradigm shift that should make every progressive NGO take a long, hard look in the mirror. We spent billions on public awareness campaigns; he spent a fraction of that on targeted military action. Who actually got the smog out of Karachi?
When a regional refinery goes up in flames, the consumer finally starts looking seriously at the total cost of ownership.
Naturally, the usual suspects are complaining. Human rights organizations are loudly citing the staggering civilian toll, while labor advocates are whining about supply chain disruptions and the crushing economic burden placed on families who can no longer afford to commute to their factory jobs. They point to the rolling blackouts and the sheer terror of living in a militarized zone. But sure, let's prioritize cheap petrol over the survival of the biosphere. We are out of time, but go off.
The working class has always been notoriously stubborn about adopting green technology unless they are literally forced to do so. Subsidies are too slow. Tax credits are too complicated. But pricing them out of the fossil fuel market entirely by triggering a devastating international conflict? That scales immediately.
If we are truly serious about net-zero targets, we must stop viewing military aggression as an environmental negative and start recognizing it as a blunt-force regulatory tool. The destruction of fossil fuel assets is not a tragedy; it is the forced retirement of stranded assets. Every bombed pipeline is a step toward decarbonization. Every sanctioned oil tanker is a win for the climate.
This realization has already begun to reshape corporate sustainability. Defense contractors are quietly exploring whether they can claim carbon offsets for the petroleum infrastructure they destroy. If a cruise missile permanently disables a processing facility that was projected to emit ten million tons of carbon over the next decade, shouldn't the manufacturer get credit for those reductions? It is the purest form of green innovation.
We have traditionally viewed our munitions through the lens of national security, but the indirect emission reductions achieved by pricing the working class out of the fossil fuel market have completely revolutionized our annual ESG report.
This opens up breathtaking new possibilities for global environmental policy. The EPA should immediately begin coordinating target lists with CENTCOM. If the threat of regional war in the Middle East can unilaterally electrify Pakistan’s transportation sector, imagine what a targeted naval blockade of Venezuela could do for solar panel adoption in Colombia. We could theoretically achieve our 2050 Paris Agreement goals by simply having NATO strategically destabilize every major petroleum exporter on the map.
I, for one, am ready to embrace our new vanguard of climate warriors. The environmental movement has spent too long being soft, relying on goodwill and subsidies to change human behavior. We needed someone with the visionary cruelty to look at a global economy addicted to oil and decide to simply blow up the supply chain. The transition was never going to be easy, and it certainly wasn't going to be peaceful. But the air over Islamabad is getting cleaner by the day. The next time I find myself at a gala with the President, I fully intend to shake his hand.