A new study suggests an ancient strain of Yersinia pestis was highly lethal, though experts stress the retrospective observational nature of the mass grave means findings should be interpreted with extreme caution.
IRKUTSK — A newly published paper in the Journal of Anthropological Sciences suggests that a strain of Yersinia pestis discovered in Siberian hunter-gatherer graves was highly lethal 5,000 years before the Black Death, though leading medical experts immediately cautioned that the findings are strictly observational and should not be used to draw definitive conclusions about ancient mortality.
While the discovery of the pathogen in multiple corpses found in a single burial pit contradicts prior theories that early plague was relatively mild, epidemiologists warned Tuesday against prematurely labeling the outbreak a "fatal event." Because the data relies entirely on subjects who have been dead for five millennia, researchers noted they cannot rule out the possibility of confounding comorbidities, lifestyle factors, or simple recall bias among the deceased.
We must be careful not to confuse correlation with causation just because an entire settlement was wiped out simultaneously with plague bacteria in their teeth.
Thorne added that the Siberian study suffers from a relatively small localized sample size, noting that a single mass grave does not constitute a statistically significant trend across the broader Late Neolithic demographic. He pointed out that the lack of a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled control group of ancient Siberians makes it difficult to definitively isolate the plague as the primary mechanism of death, rather than seasonal dietary changes or baseline prehistoric trauma.
The study's authors also disclosed that because the genetic sequencing was conducted on degraded molar fragments, the methodology has not yet been validated by in vivo clinical trials. Until further prospective longitudinal studies can be conducted on living hunter-gatherers currently contracting the ancient Siberian plague, health officials strongly advise the public to continue their normal routines and consult their primary care physician before worrying about historical outbreaks.