The patriotic case for the 3.4 percent Iran war premium on your groceries

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its August inflation report on Friday, and predictably, the professional panic class has already taken to the airwaves to complain. The annualized inflation rate held steady at 3.4 percent, matching July’s figure and remaining stubbornly high. Naturally, this has prompted a nationwide temper tantrum from everyday citizens who simply cannot fathom why their morning commute has become marginally more expensive.

Let us take a step back and look at the actual data before we surrender to the mob. The most recent peak for inflation was back in May, when it hit a three-year high of 4.2 percent. We have already shaved nearly a full percentage point off that terrifying peak. But instead of celebrating this macroeconomic triumph, the public is fixated on the fact that prices are not dropping to zero.

What the complainers conveniently ignore is the core inflation rate, which strips out volatile energy and food prices. Core inflation rose to a perfectly manageable 2.4 percent in August. This is the only number that serious people look at, because it represents the actual, underlying health of the economy.

I am just asking the questions no one else will: why do we allow food and energy to dictate our national mood? These are inherently chaotic commodities. If you structure your household budget around the assumption that gasoline and ground beef will always be cheap, you are simply displaying a lack of financial discipline. The economy is humming along beautifully for anyone who has learned to transcend the daily need for heating oil.

The real driver of the August numbers is, of course, the end of the ceasefire between the United States and Iran. Hostilities have resumed, and the resulting geopolitical friction has pushed global energy prices up. This is not a tragedy. This is the cost of doing business as a superpower.

Did you think asserting global hegemony was going to be free? The sheer logistical beauty of moving an armored division across the Zagros Mountains requires an unimaginable amount of diesel fuel. When the United States military decides to project power into a hostile theater, it buys up the supply chain. That means there is less left over for your minivan.

I sat down for lunch yesterday with a senior aide to President Donald Trump at a discreet table near the back of Cafe Milano. Over a delightful plate of branzino, he explained the sheer frustration radiating through the administration. The White House is successfully executing a complex, multi-front land war, yet all the president’s polling numbers are being dragged down by voters who are upset about the price of eggs.

He told me on background that the messaging from the Oval Office is going to pivot heavily toward patriotism in the coming weeks. If you are complaining about a 3.4 percent bump in your cost of living, you are essentially rooting for the enemy. It is a brilliant strategy, and frankly, it is long overdue.

The defense sector has been performing absolute miracles in the Middle East over the last six weeks. We are seeing unprecedented coordination between drone swarms, satellite reconnaissance, and ground infantry. None of this technology is cheap, and all of it runs on the exact same petroleum products that you use to drive to the mall.

Sterling is exactly right. The American public treats global dominance like a streaming subscription—they want all the premium content but they threaten to cancel the moment the monthly fee goes up by two dollars. You cannot demand that the United States remain the unipolar sheriff of the world and then cry poor when the sheriff needs a massive budget to buy bullets.

On Capitol Hill, the cowardice is even more palpable. I watched the Sunday shows this weekend, and I saw half a dozen senators from both parties wringing their hands over the "cost of living crisis." These are the exact same legislators who just unanimously approved a $140 billion supplemental defense package to keep the Iranian theater fully supplied.

The caucus is completely divided over the optics of this. They want to vote for the war, because the defense lobbyists write their campaign checks, but they want to pretend they are furious about the inflation, because that is what their constituents want to hear. It is a pathetic display of political theater.

We have completely lost our sense of shared national sacrifice. During the Second World War, citizens planted victory gardens and collected scrap metal. Today, the ceasefire collapses in Iran, energy prices tick up a fraction of a percent, and voters immediately threaten to overthrow the government because they have to switch from name-brand cereal to the generic store brand.

The Federal Reserve has been quietly heroic through all of this. They have maintained a steady hand on interest rates, refusing to panic just because the energy index is reacting to a massive barrage of artillery fire in the Persian Gulf. They understand that you cannot use monetary policy to fix a supply chain that is currently being subjected to intense orbital bombardment.

Dr. Gherring’s wisdom is exactly what is missing from the national discourse. We are treating inflation as something that happens to us, rather than something we choose to participate in. If the cost of energy is too high because of the war, the solution is not to end the war. The solution is to stop using so much energy.

I will admit, I too felt the pinch this month. When I received the invoice for heating the pool at my second home in Aspen, the 3.4 percent annualized increase was certainly noticeable. I had a brief moment of sticker shock. But then I remembered that the extra few hundred dollars I was paying was directly subsidizing the fuel required to launch fifth-generation fighter jets off the deck of an aircraft carrier.

I paid the bill with a smile on my face, because I understand how the world works. I understand that the stability of the global order rests on our ability to out-spend and out-bomb our adversaries.

The base needs to grow up. The next time you are at the grocery store, staring in horror at the price of a loaf of bread, take a deep breath. Look at that receipt not as a personal financial injury, but as a receipt for your contribution to the American empire. It is an absolute bargain, and you should be grateful you are allowed to pay it.